These projections are based on findings from CMP TECHNOLOGIES AND MARKETS TO THE 32 nm NODE report issued this year by Linx Consulting.
“Projecting forward, we see the market for slurries and pads utilized in CMP reaching $1.7 billion in 2011,” according to Mark Thirsk, Managing Partner at Linx Consulting. Thirsk sees the strong growth driven by memory applications. “Increasingly both DRAM and Flash will account for a higher proportion of wafer starts as the industry progresses from 90 nm to 32 nm technology nodes. This coupled with the simultaneous conversion to copper of both DRAM and Flash will help to continue to drive CMP growth.”
Overall Linx Consulting sees memory accounting for about 20% of the total CMP operations in 2007 and increasing to about one-third of all CMP operations in 2011. At the same, DRAM and Flash will increasingly convert to copper interconnect in high volume manufacturing (HVM) for advanced nodes. “Today, Micron is the leading DRAM supplier with copper in HVM. Over the next year, we expect to see both Samsung and Hynix ramp copper for 55 nm half pitch devices.” After this, other leading DRAM producers including Qimonda, Elpida, Nanya and Inotera will convert to copper HVM. In addition, a significant portion of Flash will integrate some copper in HVM over the same period.
Over the next few years, growth will be underpinned by the semiconductor production at the 90 nm node and below. “In 2008, about one-half of all CMP operations will be for devices produced at design rules of 90 nm and below,” notes Mike Corbett, Managing Partner at Linx Consulting. “By 2011, almost 70% of all CMP operations will be done on devices at 90 nm and below.”
“Consumable suppliers who have had product success with 90 and 65 nm processes will continue to realize strong revenues throughout the forecast period,” according to Corbett. “In addition, suppliers who are winning at 45 nm today will start to show strong revenue benefits in 2009/10 timeframe.” Rohm and Haas remains the leading supplier of CMP consumables, with an estimated 44% market share, followed by Cabot Microelectronics.